Hurricane Threat to Walt Disney World: Flooding Rainfall and Strong Winds Expected Later This Week

John park hopper1 minute ago

National hurricane center has it sa a major storm making land fall cat 1 --hope I am wrong but I don't see it

Gringrinngghost4 minutes ago

We are slowly starting to get new model runs in. The ICON model has shifted about 75 miles eastward, and has 72 hours out the center of the storm roughly 45 miles from Tampa to the West South West. The NAM model is more westward, but is total garbage, and would have it at 989mb, or a Cat 1 with very minimal intensity gain. Suffice it to say, too early to call.

John park hopper8 minutes ago

Wow this looks like it could be a repeat of hurricane Michael in 2018 (cat 5) which hit that part of FL------hopefully this doesn't reach that status.

HauntedPirate8 minutes ago

The food options weren't bad in September 2022 for Ian, but eating them for a day-plus would get old fast (Of course, staying in a 1-bedroom during that hurricane had its advantages). I'm curious to know if they'll offer the same things this week, if necessary.

networkpro16 minutes ago

I'm glad we didnt pick up MNSSHP for Thursday. Looks like its just going to be just wet here at WDW. Resort food for Wednesday evening and Thursday lunch now 😞

Gringrinngghost32 minutes ago

000 WTNT34 KNHC 232052 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 82.2W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Dry Tortugas and the Lower Florida Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Florida west coast, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required tonight and Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 82.2 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches, bringing a risk of flooding, some of which could be considerable. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Florida Keys...1-3 ft Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Gringrinngghost2 hours ago

An emergency declaration helps state agencies prepare for storm response.

Gringrinngghost2 hours ago

First recon flight is in the air..

Ayla2 hours ago

I believe the purpose of that is so state and local resources can now be utilized to prepare for the storm...but I don't live in a hurricane zone and never have, so don't quote me on that! I could be 100% wrong.

Ayla2 hours ago

arich352 hours ago

We are going to Mickey's Thursday night. Since it is supposed to hit the coast Thursday morning I doubt Thursday night will be good, I would assume it rains and is really windy all day/night

JKick952 hours ago

I’m supposed to go to Halloween Horror Nights on Thursday. I hope all will be good then in this area.

Gringrinngghost3 hours ago

Yep. Bombogenesis will be fun.

danlb_20003 hours ago

Yeah, I was just watching a video about this one, they said there is basically nothing to prevent this from really intensifying.