Latest update puts Dorian as a hurricane arriving in Florida on Monday

Aug 28, 2019 in "Severe Weather impacts to Walt Disney World"

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Hurricane Dorian

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Posted: Wednesday August 28, 2019 11:09am ET by WDWMAGIC Staff

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center puts Dorian arriving in Florida early Monday as a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Dorian 11am 28 August 2019

From the NHC:

All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of the United States. The new NHC track forecast is not significantly different from the previous one, and it very closely follows the multi-model consensus TVCA and the HCCA. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

For anyone with an immediate trip to Walt Disney World, here is Disney's Hurricane Policy.

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CrazydisneyfanlukeSep 10, 2019

A afternoon thunderstorm floods I-4 and part of the 408 toll road.....

beertikiSep 10, 2019

You don't need a major hurricane to cause major damage in Orlando. All it would take to create major havoc would be a few days of heavy rain followed by a minor hurricane and a few tornados. Soft ground allows lots of trees to fall, and widespread power outages for several days. Fuel shortages, and two days of missed food delivery at a few resorts, and things would go downhill real fast.

Andrew CSep 09, 2019

GringrinngghostSep 09, 2019

When my grandfather passed, it was right before Hurricane Irma. My aunts were worried about myself flying back to Orlando International after the reception because I wanted and needed to be down here. It’s so far has been the only time I’ve justified to purposely fly into a hurricane impact zone where I wasn’t doing scientific research.

larryzSep 09, 2019

ImperfectPixieSep 09, 2019

Yup, it's one thing to go out and watch storms/surf, etc. when you're young and stupid...quite another to do so once you have children.

SugarMagnolia75Sep 09, 2019

Agree. As a parent, I could not justify flying my children towards a major hurricane.

lazyboy97oSep 09, 2019

New construction since 2011 in most of Orange County has to be designed to handle sustained wind speeds up to 108 mph (gusts up to 139 mph), just under the 111 mph threshold of a Category 3 storm. Prior to the 2010 edition of the Florida Building Code, even the gust requirements were just below a Category 3 at 110 mph.

tribbleorlflSep 09, 2019

Charley ripped the roof off several buildings in my apartment complex (the one from the building next to ours missed landing on my car by three spaces), and the stucco off of one building so you could see inside one of the units. My grandparents were stuck in their cul-de-sac for three days due to multiple downed trees blocking their neighborhood and without water and power for almost two weeks. And that was just with Charley being a Cat 1 by the time the eyewall reached Orlando. As late as last Friday (before the storm took its northwestern turn), Dorian was predicted to be at least a 3 when it came through Orlando. While the ensuing damage might not have been the same as the Bahamas', I'm sure it would have been sufficient enough to severely impact this town for quite some time.

cr3346Sep 09, 2019

That's going to change 600 times between now and then. No point even posting it.

Nubs70Sep 09, 2019

Dorian was definitely worthy of the hype. The hype i and referring to are the run of the mill storm systems that are elevated to Dorian levels. For example, the naming of winter storm systems accompanied with the shocking of "15 million at risk in the path of Winter Storm Francis" Yes it is a winter storm, Yes it may drop 10 inches, but it is winter. Snow will happen. The over hype Weather Channel style puts people at risk through over hype which desensitized people to actual danger.

peter11435Sep 08, 2019

Listen, when it comes to nature never say never. Each storm is unique and in many ways unpredictable. Hurricane Wilma made landfall at 120mph and traveled diagonally across the state going back to sea still at 110mph. If a storm like Dorian made landfall at 185 at cape Canaveral traveling quickly west towards Orlando. Orlando absolutely could see category 5 hurricane conditions. Just because we haven’t seen it doesn’t mean it can’t happen

mgfSep 08, 2019

Just as a note, after 120 hours the model runs are significantly less valuable for understanding where the storm is going. NHC generally advises against relying on anything beyond 120 hours for decision making.